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How is Omicron affecting global economic recovery? The end of November felt like the beginning of a pandemic again. The news that later became known as a variant of Omicron spilled, causing the global stock market to fall, and investors were afraid of another restriction or the withdrawal of people. After two months, the effect of Omicron will be slowly focused. So far, things are doing better than expected. The market is nervous, but interest rates can be higher than Covid19. Bank Goldman Sachs has created a stock index for European companies that thrive when people are happy to be in public, such as airlines and hotels. The index, an indicator of virus fear, has risen sharply in recent weeks compared to the wider stock market.
High-frequency economic data support cautious optimism. Nicolas Woloszko of OECD, a rich country think tank, uses Google search data to compile the weekly GDP index of 46 middle- and high-income countries, from housing and employment to economic uncertainty. I am. Adjusting the index, which is a good predictor of official figures, we estimate that the GDP of these countries is about 2.5% below the pre-pandemic trend (see Figure 1). This is a bit worse than November, when GDP fell to 1.6.0, but better than a year ago, when production was almost 5.0%.
